Criminal Deeds

[Jester]

In hindsight, for many of these cases of mass homicide, even the militant ones like McVeigh, they alerted their family, friends, the public, and sometimes even government officials. They often gave big red glowing neon clues that something was wrong and dangerous. These sociopaths are not always the stereo typed silent loners who one day decide to go strike back at someone or the society. They alarm and creep out everyone around them who are seemingly powerless or maybe just clueless to do anything about the impending social train wreck.

Several problems. First, the "big red glowing neon cues" show up a lot more often than mass murderers. Like, thousands of times more often. There is a lot of noise, and very little signal.

Second, we have very poor discrimination. Type 1 errors are very common. What distinguishes the dangerous ones from ones we just don't like much? When does identifying potential dangers cross the line into enforcing social norms with state power? Who do we trust to make decisions about who is dangerous, and why?

Third, it's difficult to say what to do with people who are identified as threats. They have rights. You can't just lock them up, and you can't infringe on their privacy. But as you rightly say, some of these people who killed were already under observation of one kind or another. Didn't help, apparently.

I have no doubt we can see the patterns ex post. But if we're going to prevent these massacres before they happen, we need some pretty powerful predictive tools. I don't think we have them.

-Jester

[kandrathe]

Several problems. First, the "big red glowing neon cues" show up a lot more often than mass murderers. Like, thousands of times more often. There is a lot of noise, and very little signal.

It might be inconvenient for someone acting oddly to get a visit from a trained mental health care worker -- asking some litmus test questions. What we don't hear about very often are the cases when someone acts to get their friend/family the psychiatric help they need before they act out.

Second, we have very poor discrimination. Type 1 errors are very common. What distinguishes the dangerous ones from ones we just don't like much? When does identifying potential dangers cross the line into enforcing social norms with state power? Who do we trust to make decisions about who is dangerous, and why?

You are correct. It would need some checks and balances to keep it from being abused. Here a person can be committed for observation for 20 days if there is probable cause they intend to harm themselves or others. It needs to happen more often in these cases -- and unfortunately for tax payers, it should not at the expense of the accused.

Third, it's difficult to say what to do with people who are identified as threats. They have rights. You can't just lock them up, and you can't infringe on their privacy. But as you rightly say, some of these people who killed were already under observation of one kind or another. Didn't help, apparently.

Well, at least we could put them on the registry of "don't sell them bunches of guns and ammo they are probably sociopathic" list. Better yet, we could really try to get them effective social worker help.

I have no doubt we can see the patterns ex post. But if we're going to prevent these massacres before they happen, we need some pretty powerful predictive tools. I don't think we have them.

Brevik's sister alerted their mom to his issues two years before he ended up acting out his rampage. The common themes in many of these cases is combinations of isolation, family tragedy, relationships issues, employment issues, money troubles leading to depression, helplessness, and then suicide/homicide.

The kid who came after my family was fascinated with drawing macabre gore filled images -- not in and of itself indicative, but coupled with his family issues, his social awkwardness, and from what his few friends told me later about his torture of animals -- there were signs he was progressing towards either serial, or mass murder. Our son's school tends to over react now to anything suspicious, and while it's a pain, I think all in all if they can get one kid help who needs it this way it is a good thing.

[eppie]

Fully agree with you on this post kandrathe. You see this lack of checks also in countries with much sharper gun laws like holland. It is very easy for a mental patient to become member of a shooting club and legally have one or more weapons.