The effect of generational shift and technology on post secondary education

[kandrathe]

Some of our senior management, and board members have attended events where the new 2010 census information has been presented. Hence, in the interests of survival of our mostly residential post-secondary programs aimed at ages 18-23, I'm in the process of researching the effect of an increasingly aging population, and the advent of new technologies on our "universities" programs. I'm using statistics from the National Center for Education Statistics, the 2010 US Census, and nearby state demographers (MN (75%), WI, IA, ND, SD, NE, IL constitute about 20%, other US states about 3% and 2% international ).

I am interested in any ideas that you would contribute toward my research. These issues are confronting every brick and mortar post-secondary education organization. The advent of very successful for profit on-line education (Capella, Phoenix, etc.) has many traditional schools (private and public) scrambling to compete. There is a great concern by the accrediting agencies about the possibilities of diminished quality, so over time they have changed their program review process from once per decade to once per year.

Government funding for education will experience large changes as a result of the diminished tax base due to the retirement of large numbers of wage earners. I would predict that the States will move from taxing income to increasing property and sales taxes. I would expect a contraction in the direct funding for public post-secondary schools as well, resulting in cuts to enrollment, programs, and higher tuition.

I've currently organized my research on three population groups;

• Trends with high school graduation rates, and those seeking post-secondary degrees (< 24 years old)
• Additional or Retraining for those who've already entered their careers (< 60 years old)
• Possible educational involvement and the aspirations of the elderly(>= age 60)

The overall trends I've been looking at so far;

• The number of high school graduates will remain fairly constant over the next 30 years at about 55,000 per year varying by +/- 5000 in a cyclical manner.
• 85% of MN is white, and that will drop by %4.4 by 2025. Our student population reflects the state rates.
• The next two decades will have an unprecedented increase in the number of people age 65 and older (see chart below)
• The rapid increase in online & distance education (+ blended courses in traditional programs)
• Replacement of retiring workers (BLS -- Replacement Needs by Profession)
• Predicted 19% increase in the number of teachers needed by 2030 to achieve student/teacher ratios and replace those leaving the profession.
• The rapid rise in the incidence of diagnosed ADHD in the US

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This is a place where I can really clarify my thoughts, so I value any contributions you would add to my cogitation.

MPR Article

[Jester]

I'll take a closer look at the issues in a minute, but for your last trend, the increase in ADHD diagnoses, that is almost certainly a diagnostic issue, rather than an actual heath crisis.

-Jester

[kandrathe]

I'll take a closer look at the issues in a minute, but for your last trend, the increase in ADHD diagnoses, that is almost certainly a diagnostic issue, rather than an actual heath crisis.

I agree. Although, there may be some increase due to the same environmental factors causing the increases in Autism Spectrum Disorders. (http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html)

I suspect the difference is in closer observation of childhood psychology and learning differences. And... There is a direct correlation in the incidence of diagnosis, and the parent's insurance companies willingness to pay for treatment. So, I would guess that these "difficult" students have always been a part of the population, but were never diagnosed or treated medically in the past. The use of stimulants on children is still controversial.

Increasing Prevalence of Parent-Reported Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Among Children --- United States, 2003 and 2007

For my research, I think it is clear that these psychological differences will be classified in the DSM V, and so they will qualify as disabilities under the ADA. As I see it, educational institutions have two options. Either embrace the change, lead and develop the capability to best serve these students, or drag their feet, and minimize the financial impact. So, it is immaterial as to whether there is a health crisis, the law (ADA) will require us to provide services to this increasing demographic. I think the question I would pose to upper management would be how we will prepare, and respond to the increased needs, and costs. My recommendation will be to follow the compassionate course, and to seek grants and aid for helping those in need.