The Iraq War retrospective Thread

[kandrathe]

I noted a suggestion above, IIRC from kandrathe, that a clash with Iran means an invasion as per Iraq, five month TPFDD and logistics build up, blah blah, blah. Please stop with that, folks. The force to do that isn't available for a sustained multi year war with Iran, nor is popular and Congressional support there. The likely form of any armed action versus Iran is air strikes, Maritime strikes, possibly maritime raids on coastal or port facilities, and likely some Spec Ops.

It's a sucker bet even then, unless the leadership in Iran goes out of its way to provoke such an attack. The last two years of probing have shown them the threshold of what will or won't incite a US response: these people aren't stupid.

To put that conversation in context...

Zenda: Ah well, this discussion is getting rather pointless. Isn't your time better spent looking for reasons to declare war on Iran?
Kandrathe: If you say so. :POr, maybe the truth is dashing your illusions. Haven't you read the extreme fringe liberal literati? The next war will be launched once we figure out how to fake another 9/11 and pin it on Iran.

I was (tongue in cheek) referring to the extreme liberal fringe literati, who for the past year have been trying to predict "when" and "how" the conflict with Iran will tip from saber rattling to outright thrusts.

If I were to make a prediction about a war with Iran, I would only add to your list that another battleground would more likely be closer to Basra. The folks in that area need to decide if they would like to be a part of a reconstituted Persian caliphate, or retain their Iraqi identity.