11-08-2005, 05:10 AM
I don't see that there would be a reason for anybody to stop blowing things up any time soon.
I can't see any motivation for Iraq's Sunni population to play ball at this point. If the current governmental situation doesn't work out, then something else will happen, and from their point of view just about anything would be better than what they are getting now. Until something comes along that unites all Iraqis as Iraqis, stuff will get blown up whether we're there or not. Unfortuantely, I don't know that Iraq ever had much of a national identity, other than one that was forced on them by whoever was in charge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the country split along ethnic lines in the not-too-distant future.
The USA is probably worried about leaving a power vacuum in Iraq, however they're probably equally concerned about strategic positioning in the area. I'm pretty sure the initial plan was to foster a friendly regime in Iraq so that we could set up permanent military bases in Iraq and draw some (most? all?) of our forces out of Saudi Arabia. That would probably allow for better strategic positioning relative to Iran and Syria, and would take some of the sting out of the Arab criticism of US troops in Saudi Arabia and complaints at home that we're too cozy with the Saudis.
As of now, what do we have? Our presence in Saudi Arabia continues to be shaky, and Afghanistan is no rose garden either. Iraq was supposed to be a solid location for a permanent base, and my guess is that there are those in the military planning to hold out until that becomes the undisputed reality.
I haven't seen any pigs flying yet, though, so I hope somebody has a Plan B.
I can't see any motivation for Iraq's Sunni population to play ball at this point. If the current governmental situation doesn't work out, then something else will happen, and from their point of view just about anything would be better than what they are getting now. Until something comes along that unites all Iraqis as Iraqis, stuff will get blown up whether we're there or not. Unfortuantely, I don't know that Iraq ever had much of a national identity, other than one that was forced on them by whoever was in charge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the country split along ethnic lines in the not-too-distant future.
The USA is probably worried about leaving a power vacuum in Iraq, however they're probably equally concerned about strategic positioning in the area. I'm pretty sure the initial plan was to foster a friendly regime in Iraq so that we could set up permanent military bases in Iraq and draw some (most? all?) of our forces out of Saudi Arabia. That would probably allow for better strategic positioning relative to Iran and Syria, and would take some of the sting out of the Arab criticism of US troops in Saudi Arabia and complaints at home that we're too cozy with the Saudis.
As of now, what do we have? Our presence in Saudi Arabia continues to be shaky, and Afghanistan is no rose garden either. Iraq was supposed to be a solid location for a permanent base, and my guess is that there are those in the military planning to hold out until that becomes the undisputed reality.
I haven't seen any pigs flying yet, though, so I hope somebody has a Plan B.
Why can't we all just get along
--Pete
--Pete