Guns, Butter, and Led Zepplin

[Occhidiangela]

Hi,
I can think of only one reason.  One shouldn't blame the poor stupid puppet for what the puppeteers make him do.

--Pete
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*Cha Ching* He shoots, he scores.

Pete, this next bit is not directed to you, but I will use my response to your zinger as a springboard to the following.

I am now beyond disgusted at the commentary by complete morons, both in New Orleans, in the media, and on the internet. They are either confusing their facts, don't know a fact from a fig, or simply are not familiar enough with how the EMA structure works (see Hurricane Andrew or Hugo). As for Mr Moore, he can eat sh**. The whole reason I open this thread was not to cry about people who would not or could not leave New Orleans, it was more to frame the Katrina mess within the long term infrastructure policy, nationally, that of benign neglect now become malignant neglect, in the past 20 years.

Regarding the emergency response, the poster who played the whiner card may not be aware of how a FEMA, or state EMA template is usually drawn up. After a discussion with my office buddy who works the local Red Cross disaster relief desk (We get flooding in the river basins every year, people still build there . . .) I will fuse his comments and my experiences.

Typical phasing, on natural disaster plans (hurricane and earthquake) with which I have been familiar, is that by hour 48, state (i.e NG) resources are rolling into the area (for the first 24-48 the locale has to rely on its own EMA plan, cops etc) and by hour 96, Federal troops arrive. Withing the first 96, various lead Federal and NGO (NON governmental organizaitons, such as Red Cross, what have you) modules arriving as soon as the violent events that preclude travel into and out of the disaster zone subside. The variables to overcome in deployment timelines include damage to roads, size and equipment, remoteness of location, roads and bridges being down, runways useable or not, and so on.

On that score, FEMA had THREE states declared states of emergency at once, and New Orleans' catastrophic emergency was NOT the hurricane per se (although the hurricane was a significant emotional event) the LEVEE failure was. The Levee failure lagged the Hurricane's arrival by what, a day, half a day? Had the levee overflowed, but held, the flooding would still have been impressive, but the levee failure was an unexpected, or possibly wished away in the last 5 years assumptions. It was not the key of the arriving Federal and State hurricane relief effort, yet it changed immediately the hurricane recovery into a catastrophic flooding recovery, absent nearly all the infrastructure you take for granted: electricity, phone, roads, non existent in significant parts of New Orleans.

Parts of New Orleans. Check some of the sat photos of NW New Orleans, and . . . it was not under 20 feet of water.

The TV has been showing everyone a Cardboard Paper Towel Tube view of a wide area mess. For a political purpose, for ratings money, and to grind a variety of axes. The pundits need to be muzzled for the next 96 hours. But no, they won't STFU.

The emergency action plan was being executed BEFORE THE STORM HIT. Anyone remember the Governor giving New Orleans the evacuate order, and opening the Superdome (Oh crap, no generators? oops, EFFED up local plan, not Federal) That was part of the Emergency Action Plan.

But the idiots and pundits whinge away.

FEMA convoys were attacked and hijacked by armed thugs within the first day. Hospitals were looted by armed gangs. That is not generally a planning assumption, that people in distress will shoot to kill and rob at gunpoint the relieving forces, and prey on one another rather than assist one another.

Oh, but it's President Bush's fault. Right. ..!.. (No, he did not come off well when he did get off the dime, gee, go figure, he is legendary for his poor public speaking skills. See Pete's zinger again)

The local cops got fed up early. New Orleans lost, what, just under half their police force in the first 24 hours? Either quit, could not get to work, or what have you. Or went native and joined in the looting. Or just left.

The Mayor of New Orleans ought to be working and trying to restore his city, not running his yap about it all being someone else's fault. (More below) However, in his defense, return to the points I made in the opening post about the wishing away of the risks, over years, and despite ACoE protests and priorities. He has lived each hurricane season with the knowledge that if the storm hit close enough, greater than force 3, he was screwed. Risk decisions made are now coming home to roost, decisions made at the local, state, and federal level.

So, he cries. That is not leadership, that is whining, politics, and despicable. JFK would puke. New book out next week, I hear, by Robert F Kenedy, Jr, he of Global Warming caused blah blah fame. His new books is to be entitled:

"Profiles in Whining"

Are the FEMA and EMA assumptions about large cities with significant gang problems valid? NO. Obviously not. Every major American city may now need to be treated as Mogadishu when a natural disaster hits. How do like them apples, folks? It says your fellow citizens are barely a step away from being animals.

Could the response have been quicker? Perhaps, if only one state were impacted. Neighbor state MOU's fail when the neighbors get hammered.

Was the lack of the LANG unit critical to the governor being less able to respond? Yes, but since the troops were deployed, what thoughtful people might want to consider is what MOU or agreement the governor of LA had with neighbor states for back up, knowing full well that the normal rapid response force was gone. This was NOT a secret to anyone in Baton Rouge. What deal had been cut, for example, with the Texas Governor? I wonder. The Arkansas Governor?

"But the army should have sent troops within 24 hours to establish martial law!'

Really? Perhaps so. Of course, they have to mobilized for that mission. There is aprocess, a political process, that one has to go through to do that. It is not a process President Bush built.

Where does that lead us, though, this "send the Marines" attitude these Monday Morning Quarterbacks have?

South of the Mason Dixon line, it leads us to some harsh old political territory, and a law called the Posse Comitatus Act. Politics is politics, and the immediate in rush of Federal troops to establish martial law is not something many southerners want, southern politicians, so the political threads that go into any approved plan reflect that. Disaster plans are, whether you like it or not, colored by politics, just as military operational plans are.

The carping crowd seems to ignore portion of the non evacuated population of central New Orleans went criminal as soon as the lights went out. Just like in the New York Blackout of 1977.

I don't know how deeply that changed the nature of the help available, in scope and scale, but it reportedly cost some federal, FEMA, aid that was in the area within 24 hours to be abandoned. The aid arrived, and was either hijacked, or was held just outside the relief zone pending armed convoys.

Now, let's look at the inanity of the New Orleans disaster plan: a hurricane big enough to force evacuation is coming, and the assumption is you don't need diesel generators to create electricity, the lights will surely come on, and the ventilation, when you hit the switch. We don't need portajohns, in the Superdome, which is the primary internal evac point for those who can't get out. We . . . we are idiots, we New Orleans city planners and leaders, since we assume . . .

Criminal stupidity, in the case of the former and current mayor of New Orleans. The people of New Orleans have some of their own neighbors to blame for their human induced disaster, and their own byzantine political processes and lack of preparedness.

I am not defending Pres Bush, see my note on the levees that got this thread started, Nor do I think the response was perfect. But this blame game makes me sick, and between CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, and the jerkoffs in the foreign press, the fundamental issues missed.

What I am grateful for is that so many of our allies, from Canada to France, have ponied up help as soon as it can be accomodated.

That is what friends are for. Thanks, folks, this rogue appreciates it with all the heart in the roguish little body. :D

Occhi