04-05-2005, 08:03 PM
The passing of the Pope John Paul II got a lot of media attention. The man spent a career working to make the world a better place. What impressed me most about him was his very public forgiveness of the guy who tried to assassinate him, the man who shot him, and his efforts to move forward a reconciliation between Christianity and Judaism.
His passing marks an exit from the world stage of a Cold War leader who saw and worked to a brighter future. The Not-So-Cold-War has been going on since about 1989, and seems now to smell of the Cold War, Part Deux. In this version, multipolar power blocs are playing at the table, and, joy of joys, the gameplay includes the re-release of an old game, Nukes: Part Deux.
Over thirty years of disarmament talks and treaties, real disarmament (stockpile reductions), and inconsistently sincere non-proliferation efforts are not enough. This nuke thing requires a lot more work.
The news if sull of stories about various political organs seeking to acquire nukes. The current U.S. administration recently funded research into a "small tactical nukes for bunker busting." This silver bullet renaissance was undertaken despite the damage to the credibility of non-proliferation efforts, still a matter of American policy, that such an effort brings. (A good technical discussion was written up in Scientific American last year, and is worth a look.) If ever US leadership was needed for this global concern, it is for this one. I will point out that the US is not the only nation or political entity who needs to step up to the leadership plate. Leadership works best when action sets the example, not words.
Even today, some wannabes seek to join the "nuclear country club." Ever since China set off a bomb in the 1960's, proving their credentials, some "Third World" players have seen joining "The Club of the Crazy" as a status symbol. They don't "get" why the charter members are looking for practical ways to disband and shut down the club. The pieces for playing that game are, it is re-confirmed, available.
Nukes, Part Deux, presents today's Alexanders with a few more turns on the Gordian knot thanks to "extra national" entities, non-treaty participants. These players don't play by country club rules. They are like golf fans who come to a tournament, and then use their clubs to attack fans and players alike. They play by their rules, and of course ruin the game.
While President Yuschenko's revelation is admirable, it is most likely the tip of the iceberg. The international scrutiny that nuclear delivery systems and materials attract has forced the networks that promote proliferation to ensconce themselves firmly underground. How much is still down there, in the dark?
The comedian asks "How many Californians does it take to screw in a lightbulb?" The answer is "Five -- one to do it and four to share the experience."
I'll pose a less humorous question:
Q: How many nuclear weapons does it take to screw up global stability?
A: One, when it detonates on a "for real" target.
Nukes are in a class by themselves, as the Sarin gas attack in Tokyo demonstrated. Had that been a nuke that went off, the death toll would have been in the thousands. The language of discussion has mutated, and is simply wrong. WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) obscures the real mass destruction weapon, whereas the old term, NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) spelled things out clearly. Let's get the language right, for starters, and let's see more than talk. If someone could translate this paragraph into Chinese, I'd appreciate it and send it to Beijing.
Are the leaders of the world serious about crafting a secure global community? If so, close the Country Club's doors, plow the course under, and build a minefield around it. While you are at it, gentlemen, quit with the hypocrisy, stop engaging in enabling behavior and cover ups for the wannabes, and stop making excuses for those who won't play by the rules. Resenting "The West's" wealth is no excuse for setting off nukes. The Soviets understood that, but some of the current players don't care.
A lot of us grew up under the specter of thermo nuclear war. We knew that on any given day the MIRV-tipped ballistic missiles might fly by the dozen. (If someone acted insanely.) For a short while after The Wall went down, it seemed that we were on our way to exorcising the malignant spirit of nuclear weapons, but I'd say the rite is incomplete. The spirit still haunts us. Maybe a new exorcist can add to the team's success.
Another leader may soon enter the world stage. American flags are being flown at half-mast in honor of his predecessor, thanks to his status as a world leader. Will the next Pope be a leader, or merely a berobed bureaucrat and windbag, like so many other prominent clergymen and so-called leaders? Will the new Pope consider what to do about the first nuclear weapon of the 21st century going off on a target somewhere, or what he can do to help prevent it? Will he understand how important it is to be a leader? Will other world leaders get it, or will they remain speakers rather than doers?
Seaking of doing, what am I going to do? What I can do, which is write to my Senators and Congressman, encouraging them to advise our leadership to reverse America's step toward renewing nuclear proliferation, and asking that the US exercise leadership by example regarding nuclear non-proliferation.
If there is something you can do, albeit small, won't you join me in adding a few butterfly wing flaps of sanity into the air currents of geopolitics? I don't know if it will help, but like the prayers being said for Pope John Paul II, it can't hurt.
Occhi
His passing marks an exit from the world stage of a Cold War leader who saw and worked to a brighter future. The Not-So-Cold-War has been going on since about 1989, and seems now to smell of the Cold War, Part Deux. In this version, multipolar power blocs are playing at the table, and, joy of joys, the gameplay includes the re-release of an old game, Nukes: Part Deux.
Over thirty years of disarmament talks and treaties, real disarmament (stockpile reductions), and inconsistently sincere non-proliferation efforts are not enough. This nuke thing requires a lot more work.
The news if sull of stories about various political organs seeking to acquire nukes. The current U.S. administration recently funded research into a "small tactical nukes for bunker busting." This silver bullet renaissance was undertaken despite the damage to the credibility of non-proliferation efforts, still a matter of American policy, that such an effort brings. (A good technical discussion was written up in Scientific American last year, and is worth a look.) If ever US leadership was needed for this global concern, it is for this one. I will point out that the US is not the only nation or political entity who needs to step up to the leadership plate. Leadership works best when action sets the example, not words.
Even today, some wannabes seek to join the "nuclear country club." Ever since China set off a bomb in the 1960's, proving their credentials, some "Third World" players have seen joining "The Club of the Crazy" as a status symbol. They don't "get" why the charter members are looking for practical ways to disband and shut down the club. The pieces for playing that game are, it is re-confirmed, available.
Quote:New York Times April 2, 2005
Ukraine: Missile Smuggling Confirmed
President Viktor A. Yushchenko confirmed that his country had illegally sold six nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran and six to China in 2001, under his predecessor, Leonid Kuchma. "I confirm this, though I do so with bitterness," he told NBC-TV in an interview, remarks of which were carried by news agencies. The Soviet-era Kh-55 cruise missiles, which have a range of 1,860 miles, were smuggled out under fake contracts.
--Erin E. Arvedlund (NYT)
Nukes, Part Deux, presents today's Alexanders with a few more turns on the Gordian knot thanks to "extra national" entities, non-treaty participants. These players don't play by country club rules. They are like golf fans who come to a tournament, and then use their clubs to attack fans and players alike. They play by their rules, and of course ruin the game.
While President Yuschenko's revelation is admirable, it is most likely the tip of the iceberg. The international scrutiny that nuclear delivery systems and materials attract has forced the networks that promote proliferation to ensconce themselves firmly underground. How much is still down there, in the dark?
The comedian asks "How many Californians does it take to screw in a lightbulb?" The answer is "Five -- one to do it and four to share the experience."
I'll pose a less humorous question:
Q: How many nuclear weapons does it take to screw up global stability?
A: One, when it detonates on a "for real" target.
Nukes are in a class by themselves, as the Sarin gas attack in Tokyo demonstrated. Had that been a nuke that went off, the death toll would have been in the thousands. The language of discussion has mutated, and is simply wrong. WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) obscures the real mass destruction weapon, whereas the old term, NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) spelled things out clearly. Let's get the language right, for starters, and let's see more than talk. If someone could translate this paragraph into Chinese, I'd appreciate it and send it to Beijing.
Are the leaders of the world serious about crafting a secure global community? If so, close the Country Club's doors, plow the course under, and build a minefield around it. While you are at it, gentlemen, quit with the hypocrisy, stop engaging in enabling behavior and cover ups for the wannabes, and stop making excuses for those who won't play by the rules. Resenting "The West's" wealth is no excuse for setting off nukes. The Soviets understood that, but some of the current players don't care.
A lot of us grew up under the specter of thermo nuclear war. We knew that on any given day the MIRV-tipped ballistic missiles might fly by the dozen. (If someone acted insanely.) For a short while after The Wall went down, it seemed that we were on our way to exorcising the malignant spirit of nuclear weapons, but I'd say the rite is incomplete. The spirit still haunts us. Maybe a new exorcist can add to the team's success.
Another leader may soon enter the world stage. American flags are being flown at half-mast in honor of his predecessor, thanks to his status as a world leader. Will the next Pope be a leader, or merely a berobed bureaucrat and windbag, like so many other prominent clergymen and so-called leaders? Will the new Pope consider what to do about the first nuclear weapon of the 21st century going off on a target somewhere, or what he can do to help prevent it? Will he understand how important it is to be a leader? Will other world leaders get it, or will they remain speakers rather than doers?
Seaking of doing, what am I going to do? What I can do, which is write to my Senators and Congressman, encouraging them to advise our leadership to reverse America's step toward renewing nuclear proliferation, and asking that the US exercise leadership by example regarding nuclear non-proliferation.
If there is something you can do, albeit small, won't you join me in adding a few butterfly wing flaps of sanity into the air currents of geopolitics? I don't know if it will help, but like the prayers being said for Pope John Paul II, it can't hurt.
Occhi
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete