03-17-2005, 12:30 AM
Sorry, I know it's bad form to revive such an old post, but I was trying to answer a question for somebody, was checking this post to make sure of my knowledge, and this... caught my eye:
(emphasis mine) I was under the impression that p8 in SP had drops exactly the same as 8 partied and nearby players? You don't mean that they only count as half-players (hence drops are as if n=4) do you?! Eek :blink:
However, whichever way it is, I must be missing something else here...
The odds of an intended magical drop failing are actually fairly high. Chest TC is 100 nodrop / 15 gold / 15 junk / 10 item / 2 good. Only the 10 item and about 1 of the 2 good can be magical in that lot so the chance of the drop "failing" is 92% in a solo game. Which means the chance of getting all 10 drop passes in is actually a healthy 47%.
In a full game (now hesitating to call it p8), the nodrop falls to 2, but that still leaves a 75% chance of a failed pass, resulting in a 7.5% chance of all 10 passes. And, in a full game, there's a 81.5% chance of each pass dropping 4 items, so a 13% chance of all 10 dropping 4, so altogether a little under 1/100 chance of 40 items coming out just in phase 6.
That seems much too high.
If I have been wrong for the last two years (heh) and /players 8 is only like an n=4 game, then there is an 80% chance of a pass failing, so a 13.4% chance of seeing all 10, and a 34% chance of each pass dropping 4 hence about a 1/360K chance of 40 items dropping in phase 6. That seems more in keeping with the SP experience...
Ruvanal,Oct 21 2004, 08:34 PM Wrote:If you push the player count up to 8 (which would actually require 8 partied players together in same named area) the NoDrop value would be adjusted to a much smaller number and you would typically see a pass of the chest TCs generating 4 and sometimes 3 items per pass of chest TC. The /player8 setting in SP would be somewhat inbetween and you should see typically 2-3 items dropped from each pass of a chest TC.
(emphasis mine) I was under the impression that p8 in SP had drops exactly the same as 8 partied and nearby players? You don't mean that they only count as half-players (hence drops are as if n=4) do you?! Eek :blink:
However, whichever way it is, I must be missing something else here...
Quote:As I noted here, most would actually be magical not unique in this extreme case. Also note that the odds of getting such an event of such magnitude are extremly remote. A more modest amount of about half that size can sometimes be encountered in higher player count games though.
The odds of an intended magical drop failing are actually fairly high. Chest TC is 100 nodrop / 15 gold / 15 junk / 10 item / 2 good. Only the 10 item and about 1 of the 2 good can be magical in that lot so the chance of the drop "failing" is 92% in a solo game. Which means the chance of getting all 10 drop passes in is actually a healthy 47%.
In a full game (now hesitating to call it p8), the nodrop falls to 2, but that still leaves a 75% chance of a failed pass, resulting in a 7.5% chance of all 10 passes. And, in a full game, there's a 81.5% chance of each pass dropping 4 items, so a 13% chance of all 10 dropping 4, so altogether a little under 1/100 chance of 40 items coming out just in phase 6.
That seems much too high.
If I have been wrong for the last two years (heh) and /players 8 is only like an n=4 game, then there is an 80% chance of a pass failing, so a 13.4% chance of seeing all 10, and a 34% chance of each pass dropping 4 hence about a 1/360K chance of 40 items dropping in phase 6. That seems more in keeping with the SP experience...
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