Essay Idea Post.

[kandrathe]

Greetings all. 
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So, where do you all come in? 
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I'd like those interested to assemble these parameters into an understanding of the situation and/or prediction of the future arrangement in Europe or between Europe and the US. 
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European Union Defense Policy An American Perspective by Leslie S. Lebl

I think two issues are important to note: America will seek to promote NATO, where we have more say in what happens, and the EU will not be effective in establishing a NATO independant defense without commiting to the spending. In the end, if the EU has an effective defense force, the EU can derail or veto NATO efforts marginalizing the US role. But that is putting the cart before the horse, the more important question is; How will Europeans react to massive reductions in social programs to invest in military equipment and technology?

Another question I have is how cohesive an EU endeavor can be. If you look at the mixed success for anyone flying into a hot zone even with a humanitarian purpose. Humanitarian missions are especially politically dangerous as they are mostly down side risk. In a war, if the situation gets to hot you can apply force to cool things down, but in a humanitarian mission that is not an option. I'm concerned that the disparate political dialogues in Europe are antithetical to establishing a cohesive force with the hardihood to withstand the political backlash against the endeavor. If that is the case, then their operations will be doomed by the lack of political will in their respective countries, or worse act as a political lightning rod for radical opposition groups.