04-11-2004, 03:18 PM
Hey Vandiablo,
See my first post - I also posted a similar 'disease test with false positive' sort of problem. I didn't work it out, just left it as an example for anyone who was interested to play with.
The reason I was looking at the door problem had to do with the fact that you need to know some extra information to make the best possible choice, and it is easiest to see that information in the door problem. That was the point of my 1000 doors instead of 3 example.
As for the way the game was actually played, I am happy to defer to anyone who originally watched it, as I wasn't so much alive in the 70's... Anything I know in this case, I know from Google, but I never assume that the pages it finds contain the last word on anything.
@Pete
Hence my confusion as to how this could ever be applied rather than only pondered in an academic setting.
I'm not really sure I'd go quite that far, but if it can't ever be applied, it does start to look like that. Academic speculations have their place, but inflicting them on your average college student (at least at my university) causes much unnecessary pain. If you can't apply it, and you are only going to hurt the students, it can't be good.
-V-
Quote:I don't think this door switch game, tho, is the best example to illustrate Bayes Theorem, at least not for the way I learned Bayes.
IIRC the best examples are the ones using medical tests
See my first post - I also posted a similar 'disease test with false positive' sort of problem. I didn't work it out, just left it as an example for anyone who was interested to play with.
The reason I was looking at the door problem had to do with the fact that you need to know some extra information to make the best possible choice, and it is easiest to see that information in the door problem. That was the point of my 1000 doors instead of 3 example.
As for the way the game was actually played, I am happy to defer to anyone who originally watched it, as I wasn't so much alive in the 70's... Anything I know in this case, I know from Google, but I never assume that the pages it finds contain the last word on anything.
@Pete
Quote:But when the very meaning of the concept of "best result" is defined differently by the two "players" (i.e, when one player is the "capitalistic West" and the other is the "Soviet Block"), it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to even define the games' goals. Which makes the calculation of a strategy rather tough.
Hence my confusion as to how this could ever be applied rather than only pondered in an academic setting.
Quote:When supposed serious "intellectuals" do so, then I am reminded of one of my colleague's favorite expression: "metal masturbation".
I'm not really sure I'd go quite that far, but if it can't ever be applied, it does start to look like that. Academic speculations have their place, but inflicting them on your average college student (at least at my university) causes much unnecessary pain. If you can't apply it, and you are only going to hurt the students, it can't be good.
-V-