Chance to hit on LCS

[rwbatema]

Hi

I can't seem to match monsters chance to hit on as displayed on the lying character screen (LCS).
I realize, that by definition, the LCS lies, but I remember being able to match the chance to hit on the LCS. I guess I'll go through an example and maybe someone can tell me where I went wrong.

Character: Paladin
Difficulty: Nightmare
clvl: 63
AR: 1996
def: 2830

Monster: Death Lord
Area: Worldstone Keep Level 2
Area lvl: 65 (levels.txt)
mlvl: 61 (monsters.txt)
AR: 180 (monsters.txt)
def: 130 (monsters.txt)

LCS
chance to hit: 62%
chance to be hit: 44%

Getting Hit

Okay, Death Lords use the skill "bloodlord frenzy" at level 1.
bloodlord frenzy at level one adds:
ToHit: 10
AR bonus: 30%
I assume this means...
AR = (180 + 10) * (1 + 30%)
AR = 247
4AR = 988
Note: I haven't adjusted the AR for the area level. Should I?
mlvl gets adjusted to 65

chance_to_be_hit = 2 * mlvl / (clvl + mlvl) * 4AR / (4AR + char_def)
chance_to_be_hit = 2 * 65 / (63 + 65) * 988 / (988 + 2830)
chance_to_be_hit = 26%

Here's a thought. Maybe the LCS is not calculating my defense correctly.
This doesn't seem likely as the defense displayed is correct - I think.
The Paladin has level 15 (defense += 235%)
base_defense = 2830 / (1 + 235%)
base_defense = 845
I think the shield is about 150 defense.
Applying Holy Shield to only the shield would result in a final defense of
defense = 695 + 150 * (1 + 235%)
defense = 1197

chance_to_be_hit = 2 * mlvl / (clvl + mlvl) * 4AR / (4AR + char_def)
chance_to_be_hit = 2 * 65 / (63 + 65) * 988 / (988 + 1197)
chance_to_be_hit = 46%

This is pretty close, so maybe this is whats going on. Can anyone confirm this?

Attacking

Note: I haven't adjusted the def for the area level. Should I?

chance_to_hit = 2 * clvl / (clvl + mlvl) * AR / (AR + mon_def)
chance_to_hit = 2 * 63 / (63 + 65) * 1996 / (1996 + 130)
chance_to_hit = 92%

Clearly, I'm missing something here as the LCS says 62%.

I don't think so, but maybe the monsters get a 4X for defense too.
chance_to_hit = 2 * clvl / (clvl + mlvl) * AR / (AR + 4*mon_def)
chance_to_hit = 2 * 63 / (63 + 65) * 1996 / (1996 + 4*130)
chance_to_hit = 78%

Still not right. Any ideas?

Thanks in advance.