Hi,
I agree with any moral qualms about using idea futures to try to predict terrorist
attacks. However, I first became aware of idea futures in the context of the
relationship between politics and the financial markets. Instead of trying to
predict the timing of some vague future event, you can use futures to predict
binary (or almost binary) outcomes. For example, whether there will be a
Democrat or a Republican in the White House after the next election. Two
binary events can be combined also (e.g., Dem/Rep control in the House vs.
the Senate). These types of futures markets provide tools with which to
hedge political risk in financial markets (these were actual futures markets
I followed in the runup to the 2000 election). For more information, see:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
Phylogen.
Edits: typos
I agree with any moral qualms about using idea futures to try to predict terrorist
attacks. However, I first became aware of idea futures in the context of the
relationship between politics and the financial markets. Instead of trying to
predict the timing of some vague future event, you can use futures to predict
binary (or almost binary) outcomes. For example, whether there will be a
Democrat or a Republican in the White House after the next election. Two
binary events can be combined also (e.g., Dem/Rep control in the House vs.
the Senate). These types of futures markets provide tools with which to
hedge political risk in financial markets (these were actual futures markets
I followed in the runup to the 2000 election). For more information, see:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
Phylogen.
Edits: typos