06-04-2017, 09:10 AM
(06-03-2017, 10:29 PM)Sir_Die_alot Wrote: I looked through a few others from this forum, but all the climate change links were similarly dead, and I'm not in the mood to dig through the web archive for EVERYTHING. Feel free to show me some "moderate" climate predictions like "We will gain 1 degree per 70 years!". Everything I can recall is similar to the above. More "the world/Europe/XYZcontinent is ruined in 20 years" and less margin of error level change.
If you're looking for scientific views, the obvious place to start is the IPCC. From the 2014 report:
Quote:Relative to 1850–1900, global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) is projected to likely exceed 1.5°C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). Warming is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence), more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5 (medium confidence), but unlikely to exceed 2°C for RCP2.6 (medium confidence).
... where the various RCPs refer to different emissions scenarios. Note that all of these are talking about warming by a few degrees (2-6 is the usual range for the do-nothing scenario), not Mad Max or The Day After Tomorrow or whatever other nonsense. (Not to minimise the relevance: 2 degrees of warming would be bad, and 6 degrees would be extremely bad, especially for the billions of relatively poor people living around the equator.)
If you're looking for people making non-apocalyptic (but nevertheless deeply worrying) claims about climate change on the Lounge, just read through the historical climate change threads. Plenty to find there, if you're looking to find sensible views, not just hunting for stuff to laugh at. And, of course, Pete used to post here, and so the average quality was much higher.
-Jester