Egypt: who didn't see this coming?

[Hammerskjold]

hammerskjold, OK, our experiment was begun in a petri dish already full of cultural food.

In Egypt: really?

I don't see it. But I hope to be wrong.

At the risk of oversimplifying things, while I do think religion does play a factor I think there's another common pattern in the big picture.

I really think the common thing here is the battle between moderates and extremists in the power vacuum left by Mubarak.

Problem is, extremists tend not to have any qualms shedding blood by the gallon if it means 'saving the country', or other people's soul (by liberating them from their mortal coil), or whatever justification they can come up with.

I want to be clear here. I'm not a 'pacifist every time, all the time' kind of guy. Sometimes there really is a need for lethal force.

Problem is, again. The extremist mindset tends to think the extreme action is not only the right choice, it is the -only- choice. Because they're extreme like that. And not in a snowboarding down a mountain while drinking the Dew kind of extreme.

This would not be news to you IIRC, you know enough about the 'realpolitik' of the world if I remember previous discussions etc.

So while I am not an Egyptian, (I only occasionally walked like one during the 80's) I don't particularly put much stock in how close the vote was. For one, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some implied or very overt voter suppression going on.

These tinpots all seems to be cut from the same cloth, or at least go the same tailor.

But yes, I'm hoping it will turn out with as few bloodshed as possible. I'm not an expert, but I recognized a few familiar pattern here. It won't be the west Morsi or the group propping him will go after first, if at all. No, my bet will be the trouble makers, and/or the non true Egyptians. In short, any fellow Egyptians who keeps pestering him about checks and balances. Because they obviously hate Egypt and are corrupted by Western decadence.

It's a familiar and unfortunate tune I've heard played before. Blame a boogeyman, whip up a distraction, a violent frenzy if need be, so el presidente can clean out the silverware out of the 'People's Palace'.