Secession Petitions, the Election, and the News.

[Jester]

Well, the Texas Nationalist Movement (a real deal), and their Leader want to do it peacefully.

http://www.texasnationalist.com/
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34222_162-57...st-states/

I don't think it would ever happen violently.

I think these people are a bunch of cranks, and I don't think their movement has any chance of success.

However, to take it at least slightly seriously for a moment, there are certainly comparable movements in many countries. Canada and Quebecois separatism is the obvious analogy, but one could also look at the UK and Scotland, Span and the Basque Country, or Belgium and, well, all of Belgium except Brussels.

The economic impact would be substantial. Leaving the United States means leaving the 2nd largest currency and customs union in the world, and the largest regulatory union. You'd suddenly have to internalize all the administrative and diplomatic functions, and even start policing your own borders, which for Texas would not be a trivial expense.

Maybe more important, though, would be the social backlash. Suddenly, Texas would find itself in a bit of a pickle, with a large and growing hispanic population whom, unless I am greatly mistaken, are not secessionists. The balance between hispanic and non-hispanic Texas would be a difficult thing to balance without the rest of the United States to provide a counterbalancing force. The kind of absurd laws we have seen in Arizona might take over. Certainly, if the kinds of people writing those websites are to be the new Sam Houstons and Stephen Austins, then the whole project is going to go straight down the crapper.

I doubt the result would be apocalyptically bad. I think people exaggerate the downsides. But not as much as secessionists vastly exaggerate the (mostly theoretical) upsides. I think it's a stupid idea that will go nowhere.

-Jester