The effect of generational shift and technology on post secondary education

[kandrathe]

Some of our senior management, and board members have attended events where the new 2010 census information has been presented. Hence, in the interests of survival of our mostly residential post-secondary programs aimed at ages 18-23, I'm in the process of researching the effect of an increasingly aging population, and the advent of new technologies on our "universities" programs. I'm using statistics from the National Center for Education Statistics, the 2010 US Census, and nearby state demographers (MN (75%), WI, IA, ND, SD, NE, IL constitute about 20%, other US states about 3% and 2% international ).

I am interested in any ideas that you would contribute toward my research. These issues are confronting every brick and mortar post-secondary education organization. The advent of very successful for profit on-line education (Capella, Phoenix, etc.) has many traditional schools (private and public) scrambling to compete. There is a great concern by the accrediting agencies about the possibilities of diminished quality, so over time they have changed their program review process from once per decade to once per year.

Government funding for education will experience large changes as a result of the diminished tax base due to the retirement of large numbers of wage earners. I would predict that the States will move from taxing income to increasing property and sales taxes. I would expect a contraction in the direct funding for public post-secondary schools as well, resulting in cuts to enrollment, programs, and higher tuition.

I've currently organized my research on three population groups;

• Trends with high school graduation rates, and those seeking post-secondary degrees (< 24 years old)
• Additional or Retraining for those who've already entered their careers (< 60 years old)
• Possible educational involvement and the aspirations of the elderly(>= age 60)

The overall trends I've been looking at so far;

• The number of high school graduates will remain fairly constant over the next 30 years at about 55,000 per year varying by +/- 5000 in a cyclical manner.
• 85% of MN is white, and that will drop by %4.4 by 2025. Our student population reflects the state rates.
• The next two decades will have an unprecedented increase in the number of people age 65 and older (see chart below)
• The rapid increase in online & distance education (+ blended courses in traditional programs)
• Replacement of retiring workers (BLS -- Replacement Needs by Profession)
• Predicted 19% increase in the number of teachers needed by 2030 to achieve student/teacher ratios and replace those leaving the profession.
• The rapid rise in the incidence of diagnosed ADHD in the US

[attachment=52]

This is a place where I can really clarify my thoughts, so I value any contributions you would add to my cogitation.

MPR Article