The new old war in Korea

[Jester]

And I think you're wrong because you're not looking at the whole picture of the theatre involved. The South Korean Airforce has a number of modern aircraft, but their forces have a large number of F4s and F5s (both Vietnam era, same as most of the NKs planes you listed).

The bottom end of the South Korean air force is roughly comparable with the top end of the North Korean, assuming similar maintenance, fuel, parts, pilots, etc..., all of which are actually advantages for the South Koreans. The bottom end of the North Korean air force might not even get off the airstrip.

Now, the NK Air Force has 40 fighters, their MiG-29s, that are competitive technologically with the 200-odd F-15s and F-16s that are the vanguard of the SK air force. I don't think those numbers are near enough, especially since if there's anywhere the South Koreans are not going to be alone, it's in the air. Once American air power hits the skies, it'll be all over for NK air power, if it wasn't already.

They also have no attack helicopters at all where as the NKs have a number of them (specifically Mi 24s and Mi 26s).

That might be true of their Air Force, but it's not true of their military. South Korea has hundreds of attack helicopters, and has been toying for years with building their own cutting-edge versions. North Korea, meanwhile, as a couple dozen imported ones, that they've had to jury rig together from their own (read: crappy) industrial base.

Now, let's take a look at ground forces (which you seemed to have ignored as well). North Korean Ground Forces are using similar era equipment to the South Korean Ground Forces. Again, the South Koreans have a few more modern pieces, but, the technical advantage isn't this gigantic amont that you continue to portrait. As I said many times earlier, have you actually looked at the forces involved here?

The South Koreans are mostly driving K1 "Baby Abrams" tanks. They've got somewhere around 1400 of them, which would the be the bulk of their tank forces. That's a flat out modern tank, all the bells and whistles. (According to the wiki, North Korean defectors call it the "monster tank", and have no adequate response to it.)

The effectiveness of the North Korean tanks is debatable, since nobody has actually seen them in action. As generous as I can be, this puppy here is, just maybe, almost a match for the South Korean standard K1s, although it appears to be slower. They have, at best, 1/5th of the number the South Koreans have. The rest of the NK tank equipment is damned impressive in number, but increasingly outdated. They've got maybe 1000 of these, from the 1980s. The rest is between old and ancient, Korean War relics that would be a sorry sight indeed against the South Korean K1A1s.

Edit: ... and heaven help them once these start coming into play, which was supposed to be this year and next.

And remember, this is all North Korean upgrades and maintenance, and some of it is NK design. If that's even close to as solid as American or South Korean design, on a budget that's beyond shoestring, then we really need to take another look at Communism as an economic model.

Clearly you haven't if you continue to spout that 24Billion is trumping 9Billion to have better equipment.

Where do you think the North Koreans are getting the money, then? Are they just so beloved in the international community that people send them tech and weapons free of charge? Or do they feed their soldiers manna from the heavens? The strain of running a military that gigantic on a sum that paltry has to reveal itself in weaknesses somewhere. Partly, it's straight up oppression - I wouldn't want to live, let alone fight, on a NK soldier's rations. But it also shows up in all the advantages of wealth - supplies, refits, maintenance, fuel, training.

They're not a paper tiger. But if you're going to put money on the quality of equipment made or maintained with North Korean tech, on a North Korean budget, against the top of the line from the rest of the world...

Whether you want to believe it or not Jester, a lot of the money in the US armed forces budget is for training/operations and personnel. If you take a look at the US Defense Budget, you'll notice that 2/3s of the budget is going to operational/training and personnel costs, that's over $400 Billion right there.

Okay. Since you've already stipulated that the US has a human advantage, I'll just reiterate that this is a *very* large advantage to have. But yes, training, educating, paying, feeding and housing a large army is expensive. Just remember the North Koreans have to do it too, on a lot less money, with an absurd number of active troops.

You'll also note that between procurement and research, a little than a third of the US budget is spent on equipment. If you look at the situation in NK and SK, I'm sure you will see something along the lines where SK is spending their budget like the US, $16 Billion on training/operations and personnel, where as the NKs are spending more money on procurement (and if you pay attention in the link you did above about the NK Air Forces, you'll see that an entire class of aircraft is ground due to high fuel costs which shows that NK isn't spending as much on operational/training costs if they can't fly those jets due to the cost of the fuel).

Isn't this very much the point? The North Koreans are spending great gobs of money making their military look impressive, trying to keep up with their much richer, higher tech competitors. That means stretching their already paltry military budget (by world power standards, which is the league they're pitching in), at the expense of everything else, including the things they need to fight a war: fuel, food, training, spare parts, maintenance. You think that's not going to cost them in an actual war? That somehow, their Taepodongs are going to fire accurately without the technical expertise and computing power needed to operate them? That their tanks are going to drive without petrol? That their best equipment is going to survive first contact with a force as impressive as the South Koreans without requiring repairs they are ill-equipped to make?

So, I think you're not viewing things in the proper light and are using some statistics in a non-meaningful manner.

The feeling is mutual.

You are comparing NK forces to US Forces when not realizing that everything the US gets in its military does not automatically get transferred to our allies' inventories. In essence, you've been comparing apples and pineapples.

I've been going out of my way to (generally) keep this comparison between the SK and NK militaries, and to duck the question of the world's superpower simply blowing North Korea into paste. I'm arguing that the South Koreans are a pretty damn fair match for the North Koreans - while capacity of NK is still somewhat mysterious, I strongly suspect that, given budgetary constraints, technological limitations, fuel shortages, and a total failure of human development, the North Koreans are much weaker than they appear. But even if they're not, the South is a formidable force by itself, fully the equal of the North Korean forces.

For a concurring opinion, see here.

-Jester