The new old war in Korea

[Lissa]

In essence, you've been comparing apples and pineapples.

I generally agree with what Jester is saying though I don't disagree that the North Koreans are probably making the most of their money by getting equipment and whatnot from allies on the cheap which could distort how advanced they might be. However, AT THE ABSOLUTE BEST for North Korea, they could be considered South Korea's equal. Based upon that assumption (which is a major reach, in my opinion) I just can't see North Korea being able to make any push at all into South Korea. Assuming all things being equal they would just continue to lob rockets and artillery at each other while fighting around near the DMZ until such time as US forces could be brought in to heavily turn the tide against North Korea. Heck, even in the Iraq war the US took several weeks to make it to Baghdad despite the fact that the Iraqis were completely out-classed. I would have a hard time believing the North Koreans could do better.

The only thing that could possibly result in anything you describe, Lissa, is if the North Koreans somehow managed to launch a blitzkrieg campaign that completely surprises South Korea AND the US. As Jester notes, that is extremely unlikely given how many ways South Korea and the US can watch the Korean forces moving within the country. If North Korea ever started building up for a major attack, there's probably greater than a 99% chance that South Korea or the US would know something was going on in advance and they could prepare. In that case, it is not unreasonable that opposition forces would be mobilized almost immediately from staged locations nearby, resulting in the sort of rout Jester has been predicting.

That's the thing though TD, NKs forces are mostly mobilized as is. Roughtly half of the NK forces are in the DMZ area. SK is similarly setup. Within a minute or two, either side could first strike and do some serious damage to the opposite's sides forces in and around the DMZ. I don't see the SKs launching a first strike because of what would happen if they did (China would jump in).

Also, as Jester noted, SK's population is 50 Million, but of those 50 Million, roughly half are within artillery range of the North. Between the 10 to 11 million in Seoul, 10 million in the province that Seoul is surrounded by, and 3 million in the other province that is along the DMZ, that's a lot of population to have under the barrels of the NK artillery. In a first strike opportunity, the NKs would degrade the SK forces farily quickly. While I realize it doesn't seem practical, it is, however, quite possible for NK to put some severe hurt on SK.

And something to note about the US push to Bagdahd, the size of the country added time. South Korea is fairly small in comparison to Iraq, about 100k sq km to 500k sq km. From the DMZ to the Sea of Japan is roughly 400km where as from the Iraq/Kuwait border to Bagdhad is about 1000km. Likewise, sand is more harsh on equipment than the what you would see in Korea. So travel times can vary a bit more, but since the US had absolute control of the airspace, it was really more a travel issue due to elements in getting to Bagdhad, the same situation may not occur in Korea.

Personally, I'd love to have Occhi chime in as he's got a better handle on this than all of us.