The new old war in Korea

[kandrathe]

Some things to consider about war with the DPRK;

* 1.2 million man army with 2/3rds of them stationed within 60 miles of the DMZ, along with thousands of tanks and APC's. 11,000 240mm multiple rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled guns aimed at Seoul alone. They can mobilize this force with 24 hours notice.
* probably have enriched enough material for >10 and < 25 nuclear warheads (with about 2.5 to 5 Kt yields)
* They are the world's largest exporter of ballistic missiles and technology, and have hundreds of (Hwasong 5, 6) SCUD type (570km), and many dozens of No-Dong type missiles (1500km), and a couple dozen Taepodong type (2300+ Km) type missiles.
* The paranoia of the leadership means that even a small surgical strike to cripple their Yongbyon reactor would most likely be viewed as a prelude to total war, and the DPRK response would be unpredictable.
* North Korea would most likely expend their nuclear arsenal attacking targets off the peninsula, namely aiming at Japan, US bases, and other targets valued most highly by the west. Hence, why we have deployed batteries of Patriot-AC2 anti-missile defenses around the region.
* They might expect to sweep through the peninsula with their conventional forces, or just take Seoul as a bargaining chip.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/o...n-5027.htm

There would be no need to retaliate with nuclear weapons, since we have overwhelming conventional forces to destroy North Korea. But, I don't think China would stay out of it. I think they would still use NK as a tool to manipulate the situation to their advantage. I think they would mobilize a sizable force (16th group army, possibly two others in the Shenyang Military Command), and be ready at the border, or even move into North Korea.