This man should not be allowed near nuclear weapons!

[Kevin]

Sure, but the USSR was one of those countries - and yet, nuclear deterrence worked just fine against them. Now, they don't believe in an afterlife per se, so maybe that makes some difference.

I'm still betting that, however ruthless the leadership may get, they are unlikely to become genuinely suicidal, especially when faced with the prospect of their entire civilization being purged with nuclear fire.

-Jester

I will say that I'm actually glad that Gordon Brown seems to be leading the international charge against them. At least I see his name pop up in the press more in reference to Iran than any other leader. Of course he is on his way out too if I followed stuff correctly. But it's nice to see some of the deterrence coming loudly from somewhere outside the US.

I'm also not sure if they aren't suicidal or not. The folks that hold the deterrence would be under scrutiny for using it as well, you can't just leave that factor out. So it depends on how aggressive they got. One nuke does amazing amounts of immediate as well as delayed damage and might only be met with conventional retaliation. Which can be just as, if not more, devastating in the long run, but tends to not come off as horrific, it's also not as rapid.

Iran getting nuclear capabilities does worry me. The situation in Pakistan worries me even more right now.

The real worry is that one insane person in the wrong spot, or one influential enough person, could cause real damage. I know that there are very good safeguards put in place to help prevent just this, but some of the leadership, that can inspire young men to happily blow themselves up, have shown the ability to come up with and execute some more intricate plans. The current leadership in Iran seems to have quite a few less than stable people in positions of great power who might just help coordinate just a single shot. But as single shot can be more than enough.

It's unlikely, I agree, but I worry more about that happening in Iran than anywhere else. I worry about Pakistan losing control of key facilities as well. I'm very glad that Obama was clear that the danger was Pakistan but that we can't leave Afghanistan in the state it is in, even if it's not the real worry. I'm glad the mission focus in Afghanistan has changed too.

But for now I think deterrence is effective and will continue to be so, but I still worry. :)