08-03-2008, 06:05 PM
Quote:That's a lot of infrastructure my friend. Add to that another huge amount of energy needed for transportation and industry. I'm not saying solar won't help. I'm saying it is too dilute to be the magic bullet that will solve our energy problems. Hoping that endless investment into technology can undo the laws of physics (solar constant) is not the answer either.
I'm just going to comment on a couple points here real quick. I looked over the numbers you are supplying and at a quick glance they seem to be based off the present silicon designed panals. You say that if huge breakthroughs occur we could get efficiencies of up to 60% but those theoretical effeciencies are already possibilities. Here's the problem though, the 60% efficiencies are using Nanocrystal technology and the present 30% efficiencies are using the silicon technology. The difference is with the silicon tech each proton collision yields 1 electron and some excess heat while the nanocrystal tech has an increased chance to yield an extra electron instead of the wasted heat. Thus the efficiencies aren't equatable between the techs. A theoretical 100% efficiency with the nanocrystals would be 200% efficiency for the silicon panals. Even if you got to 60% efficiency with nanocrystals you would have already surpassed the maximum offered by the silicon.
Secondly i'll again comment on people's inherant proclivity to think linearly (not particularly speaking of you.) Yes, as of yet appearances are that solar isn't making many big breakthroughs. That's what an exponential curve looks like early on, when you are only doubling small numbers. Very quickly, however, those small numbers turn into large numbers and so on. At present solar power is rougly 7-8 times as expensive for the same amount of energy return as traditional oil fuels (if i remember correctly). But when you look at the rates of advancements in efficiencies of cost, solar is right on track to equal cost efficiency and surpass that of oil in about 5-6 years. You ask above about infrastructure? The second solar is as cost efficient or moreso you will see infrastructure real quick. You're the one that is the great capitalism prognosticator around here, it will come from the free market. If a business can invest in retooling their company to solar power and save over time they will do it fast. That's the second level of exponential advancement i mentioned earlier related to technology. As any technology advances along and becomes more effecient the amount of money going into it's development also goes up increasing the rate of advancement exponentially.