08-01-2008, 04:29 AM
I would not say that the current price of oil is due to the demand and supply but rather due to over excessive speculative attacks. From my experience in trading future options on oil I found that a very small things can cause the ups and downs in the price, so with markets being very volatile the ups and downs become bigger and people's paranoia tends to decrease the downs in price of oil and rather to push it up. However currently oil is overvalued and now is going down as all the speculators realized that it was overvalued and will not go any higher so they started to dump it. I predict the price of oil by the end of the year to be between $100 and $90 per barrel.
To provide some basis for my argument of over speculation on oil this year I would like to remind that at the top price this year we hit over $140 a barrel. Below are the historical prices of oil:
![[Image: pricesoiltg0.jpg]](http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/6307/pricesoiltg0.jpg)
![[Image: pricesoil2qf6.jpg]](http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/5148/pricesoil2qf6.jpg)
![[Image: pricesoil3hg3.jpg]](http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/6973/pricesoil3hg3.jpg)
To provide some basis for my argument of over speculation on oil this year I would like to remind that at the top price this year we hit over $140 a barrel. Below are the historical prices of oil:
![[Image: pricesoiltg0.jpg]](http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/6307/pricesoiltg0.jpg)
![[Image: pricesoil2qf6.jpg]](http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/5148/pricesoil2qf6.jpg)
![[Image: pricesoil3hg3.jpg]](http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/6973/pricesoil3hg3.jpg)
![[Image: pricesoil4fv6.jpg]](http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/7013/pricesoil4fv6.jpg)
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"Only a fool fights a battle he knows he can not win" - Ghengiz Khan
Home of Avro Arrow Replica
Tatar Community of Toronto