Upcoming games that makes me glad I'm a species born with opposabl

[Chesspiece_face]

I think this is the core of our disagreement. You think people pick consoles based on what HD format they support. If that is the case, then backing HD-DVD will help them dominate that space, "bury Sony", etc.

I don't think that's a significant factor. I think folks get consoles to play games. The content of those games is the determining factor. I can't imagine someone picking an XBox over a PS3 because the PS3 won't play "300". I can imagine picking an XBox to play Halo.

To support my point, http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070...pabilities.html

If they want to eat Sony's lunch, forcing them to use Microsoft technology and services to distribute their movies would be a nice way to do it. So much better than winning the format war and watching all that money go to Toshiba, no? So, the Paramount deal could be taken as a swipe at Sony, but I don't think it has much effect on the console war.

As for my part, i believe that you and I agree on most of these points. I think people do choose consoles based on what games they have, price, etc. the problem for sony, and the reason that this generation of consoles and HD media are intertwined is that for the PS3 to be successful not only does it need to be a good console, but Blu-ray also needs to end up the dominant media. There was a thread on these boards about a year ago in which i detailed my thoughts on why the PS3 would have problems getting a foothold in the next gen market (presently i'm having trouble finding the link, but i may add it later.) And one issue i enumerated was that last gen the PS2 was able to ride the upswell of DVDs by being a gaming console as well as a DVD player. A lot of people bought a PS2 because not only was it a good console but also because they could get into DVDs along with it (good value proposition).

Fast forward to current gen consoles and Sony is looking to do a repeat by riding the advance of HD to push their console into homes. Problem is when the PS2 came out DVD had been around for a year or two and was past the point of early adoption and at the point that the mass market was starting to eye it. Not the case for Blu-ray or HDdvd. Both of these are still sitting in the early adopter markets.

Sony's whole 10 year plan for the PS3 is to ride the upsurge of HD by pushing Blu-ray as the dominant next gen media. If blu-ray does become the next gen media than Sony will be able to use the same strategy that worked for the PS2, people will buy a PS3 not only because it is a gaming system, but because they also can have an HD player. If Blu-ray fails as the next gen media, however, Sony loses this added inroute into the homes as well as has a gaming system that is crippled by having it's main media drive based on a failed technology. Thus if Blu-ray fails the PS3 fails. There is no way that the PS3 will last 10 years if HDdvd becomes the dominant media. Which puts Sony in a major pickle. They have lost an absurd amount of money into the production of the PS3, if in 3 years (instead of 10) it looks like they need to drop the PS3 and come up with a new console it's a very real possibility that they won't be able to pull it off.

Edit: Link included. Main argument is about halfway down the first page.