11-07-2006, 09:12 AM
Hi mekane.
I believe that your way how to count final probability is right, but when I looked at it, I got different arguments:
POSSIBLE BASE ITEMS:
Armor -> Leather armor - FPM = 11 items
Axes -> Broad, Battle, Great = 3 items
Bows -> Composite - LWB = 5 items
Clubs -> Flail, Maul = 2 items
Helms -> Helm - Great Helm = 4 items
Shields -> Large - Tower = 4 items
Swords -> Broad - Great = 4 items
-----------------------------------------------------
Total 33 possible items in qlvl range 7 - 30
POSSIBLE PREFIXES: - (D) means double chance to be picked
Platinum (D), Mithril (D), Meteoric (D) = 3
Soldiers (D), Lords (D), Knights (D), Masters (D), Kings (D) = 5
Brutal (D), Massive (D), Savage (D) = 3
Crystal, Diamond, Garnet, Ruby, Cobalt, Saphire, Obsidian = 7
Lightning = 1
----------------------------------------------------------
Total 19 possible prefixes
POSSIBLE SUFFIXES:
Giants, Titans, Sorcery, Precision, Vigor, Heavens = 6
Slaying, Gore = 2
Blood, Vampires = 2
Speed, Haste = 2
Bashing = 1
Ages = 1
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total 14 possible suffixes
Chance that Gris pick Bastard = (1/33)
Chance for prefix and suffix = (1/6)
Chance for Kings prefix = (2/30)
Chance for Haste suffix = (1/14)
---------------------------------------------
Totally its (1/41580) = 0.00002405 what means 7 days 5 hours and 15 minutes of shopping.
POSTSCRIPT:
Why you calculate with "of Haste" only ? What about "of speed" ? Voila - its double chance for equal sword now.
And what about Broad sword? I know, it has smaller DMG. There is a difference 4 - 8 between best DMG Basty and worst DMG Broad. But it could be still OK, no? And that Broad sword can be Haste or Speed as well. Finally, maybe you could use even Flail. I know, fighting animals with club its annoying, but when you have nothing better, Kings/Haste (Speed) flail comes quite handy.
So its:
2*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames Bastard sword
4*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames sword
6*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames one handed weapon
I believe that your way how to count final probability is right, but when I looked at it, I got different arguments:
POSSIBLE BASE ITEMS:
Armor -> Leather armor - FPM = 11 items
Axes -> Broad, Battle, Great = 3 items
Bows -> Composite - LWB = 5 items
Clubs -> Flail, Maul = 2 items
Helms -> Helm - Great Helm = 4 items
Shields -> Large - Tower = 4 items
Swords -> Broad - Great = 4 items
-----------------------------------------------------
Total 33 possible items in qlvl range 7 - 30
POSSIBLE PREFIXES: - (D) means double chance to be picked
Platinum (D), Mithril (D), Meteoric (D) = 3
Soldiers (D), Lords (D), Knights (D), Masters (D), Kings (D) = 5
Brutal (D), Massive (D), Savage (D) = 3
Crystal, Diamond, Garnet, Ruby, Cobalt, Saphire, Obsidian = 7
Lightning = 1
----------------------------------------------------------
Total 19 possible prefixes
POSSIBLE SUFFIXES:
Giants, Titans, Sorcery, Precision, Vigor, Heavens = 6
Slaying, Gore = 2
Blood, Vampires = 2
Speed, Haste = 2
Bashing = 1
Ages = 1
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total 14 possible suffixes
Chance that Gris pick Bastard = (1/33)
Chance for prefix and suffix = (1/6)
Chance for Kings prefix = (2/30)
Chance for Haste suffix = (1/14)
---------------------------------------------
Totally its (1/41580) = 0.00002405 what means 7 days 5 hours and 15 minutes of shopping.
POSTSCRIPT:
Why you calculate with "of Haste" only ? What about "of speed" ? Voila - its double chance for equal sword now.
And what about Broad sword? I know, it has smaller DMG. There is a difference 4 - 8 between best DMG Basty and worst DMG Broad. But it could be still OK, no? And that Broad sword can be Haste or Speed as well. Finally, maybe you could use even Flail. I know, fighting animals with club its annoying, but when you have nothing better, Kings/Haste (Speed) flail comes quite handy.
So its:
2*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames Bastard sword
4*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames sword
6*0.00002405 for Kings/7 frames one handed weapon