11-07-2006, 03:30 AM
Hello Lurkers,
I posted a while ago about my semi-obsession with buying a KSOH from Griswold.
I'm now back to playing Diablo after a (mostly unintentional) break, due in
almost equal amounts to my hard disk's death and the school year starting.
I'm also back to my quest for a KSOH, and after spending most of today shopping,
I thought I'd take another look in The Guide to see if I could figure out what my
chances are, roughly. My character, who I've nicknamed 'shopaholic' is level 29.
I'm hoping that some of your experts can give my calculations a glance and see if
I'm close.
Here's what I came up with:
Given that my char is level 29, the minimum base item qlvl will be 7, and there are 34
possible weapon/armor items that Gris could stock. So there's a 1/34 chance that I'll
get a bastard sword. Sweet.
Next, there's a 16.7% chance that a given magic item will have both a prefix and a
suffix (that directly from The Guide).
Then, there are 24 prefixes in the range of 14-33 (ilvl/2-ilvl+2). It's a little fuzzy
because of the range of Gris's ilvl's, but that's okay with me. So I figure there's a
1/24 chance of getting the "King's" prefix, except that The Guide says the King's
prefix has a double chance. Now, I'm a little unclear on what that double means. I assume
it doesn't just double that particular one, since there are others, so I don't have a
1/12 chance. I assume I have to add all the prefixes that have a double chance onto the
list, and I have a 2 out of however-many-that-is chance. Is that right? If so, then I
have a 1/16 chance of getting the "King's" prefix (2/32).
Lastly, I counted 20 possible suffixes in range.
So, (1/34)*(.167)*(1/16)*(1/20) = 0.00001535
Giving a 1.5 out of 100,000 chance in getting my KSOH. Or, roughly, a 1/66,666 chance. :blink:
I timed myself, and I can visit Gris once every 15 seconds (almost exactly), so thats
4/minute. 66,666 / 4 / 60 = 277 hours to have a decent chance of getting one.
12 solid days of Gris shopping? I have to say that's daunting...
Please let me know if I've read The Guide correctly. Of course I'm hoping that I've
gone astray somewhere and it's really not that bad. I have a nagging doubt that I left
something out and it's actually much worse :(
-mekane
I posted a while ago about my semi-obsession with buying a KSOH from Griswold.
I'm now back to playing Diablo after a (mostly unintentional) break, due in
almost equal amounts to my hard disk's death and the school year starting.
I'm also back to my quest for a KSOH, and after spending most of today shopping,
I thought I'd take another look in The Guide to see if I could figure out what my
chances are, roughly. My character, who I've nicknamed 'shopaholic' is level 29.
I'm hoping that some of your experts can give my calculations a glance and see if
I'm close.
Here's what I came up with:
Given that my char is level 29, the minimum base item qlvl will be 7, and there are 34
possible weapon/armor items that Gris could stock. So there's a 1/34 chance that I'll
get a bastard sword. Sweet.
Next, there's a 16.7% chance that a given magic item will have both a prefix and a
suffix (that directly from The Guide).
Then, there are 24 prefixes in the range of 14-33 (ilvl/2-ilvl+2). It's a little fuzzy
because of the range of Gris's ilvl's, but that's okay with me. So I figure there's a
1/24 chance of getting the "King's" prefix, except that The Guide says the King's
prefix has a double chance. Now, I'm a little unclear on what that double means. I assume
it doesn't just double that particular one, since there are others, so I don't have a
1/12 chance. I assume I have to add all the prefixes that have a double chance onto the
list, and I have a 2 out of however-many-that-is chance. Is that right? If so, then I
have a 1/16 chance of getting the "King's" prefix (2/32).
Lastly, I counted 20 possible suffixes in range.
So, (1/34)*(.167)*(1/16)*(1/20) = 0.00001535
Giving a 1.5 out of 100,000 chance in getting my KSOH. Or, roughly, a 1/66,666 chance. :blink:
I timed myself, and I can visit Gris once every 15 seconds (almost exactly), so thats
4/minute. 66,666 / 4 / 60 = 277 hours to have a decent chance of getting one.
12 solid days of Gris shopping? I have to say that's daunting...
Please let me know if I've read The Guide correctly. Of course I'm hoping that I've
gone astray somewhere and it's really not that bad. I have a nagging doubt that I left
something out and it's actually much worse :(
-mekane