At The Point of a Bayonet

[Occhidiangela]

There are no good options in Iraq. There are two realistic possibilies: either a Shia/Kurd alliance takes over and the Sunnis get it in the neck. That will strenghten Iran but would provide an exit strategy for the US. The other possibility is that Iraq splits up into a number of feuding entities a la Lebanon 20 years ago. That wouldn't be so positive for Iran, they have enough minorities of their own, but it also wouldn't profit the US.

Of course it might also happen that everything turns out fine in the long run, i.e. peace and democracy, if US troops stay the course but I wouldn't bet on it. Personally I think that during the presidential elections in 2008 the candidates will fall over themselves to promise a quick American withdrawal.

BTW it's interesting that while everybody is watching Lebanon and Iraq Islamic militias are successfully taking over Somalia and turning it into an emirate.

Yep. And a new operating base for Al Qaeda, now that Afghanistan is a bit rough for comfort.

Occhi